Buying or Selling? Warriors Big Picture Predictions

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Updated: September 11, 2021
Klay

There is no other team in basketball that has a larger variance in expectations for their playoff success heading into the 2021-22 season than the Golden State Warriors. With Klay Thompson’s return being projected out at the Christmas Day matchup against CP3 and the Phoenix Suns, so much depends on what the Splash Brothers look like after Klay’s tandem of ACL and Achilles injuries in two back-to-back seasons. The Warriors have sat in the spotlight this offseason as the team expected to land a superstar on the trade market, but according to head coach Steve Kerr, those trades simply “don’t exist.” Instead, they used their lottery picks on the gamble of high ceiling low floor Jonathon Kuminga and off-ball shooter Moses Moody. Many doubters of Kuminga’s talents have started to come around after his promising outings in the summer league, however, it is beyond rare that a pair of 19 year old’s act as the missing pieces for a title contender. Most consider their free-agent signings a success with giving vet minimum contracts to former Euro-League MVP Nemanja Bjelica, spot-up sniper Otto Porter Jr., and the pride of the dynasty, Final’s MVP Andre Igoudala.

Not quite Brad Beal or Dame Lillard, but they are players who were expected to possibly get paid between 4-7 million range who were willing to take the minimum to play in the Bay in the hopes of a title on the back of Curry’s early 30’s prime. When projecting the value of a prediction for the Warriors, it becomes problematic due to so many analysts picking them as their black horse that they really can’t be seen as such anymore. Everything sits on the fence of former All-NBA game 6 Klay Thompson. A man everyone knows can steal a game a series all on his own has not touched the floor of an NBA court in 2 seasons. So for anyone who does not currently hold Warriors stock it is a dangerous pick considering how high so many already are on their comeback. For those who are still holding Golden State stock back from the dynasty years and didn’t sell it off in the DLO era, it should prove to pay out lucrative profits.

One of the key variables in the price of the stock and the probability of success or failure is the line of demarcation of how success will be defined. Since they have so many young pieces in this newly formed young core, and it is Klay’s first year back after his return, if the Warriors managed to get out of the first round and have a competitive series in the 2nd, for most it would be seen as an outstanding outing for them moving forward. If that is the floor for success, purchasing Golden State stock is a worthwhile bet to place. However, with how deep the West is with talent, if the floor is set at Western Conference Finals, buying new stock at the price it is being set at it could prove to be a dangerous gamble.

Curry Stock Buying or Selling

One would assume that after the miraculous season Steph Curry put up that if you were not already in on his stock it would be a terrible time to buy-in. However, for many around the league, the Baby Face Assassin is no longer a unanimous top 3 player in the NBA. For many, he even slips out of the top 5 with KD, Kawhi, Bron, Giannis, and a variety of stars taking the top 5th spot. If the venue you’re buying Chef Curry stock is selling it at 5 or above, MVP stock and playoff success takes are gambles that seriously should be considered. Especially now that vets have been added to take the big brother role off the shoulders of Curry’s responsibility and he can focus on annihilating teams in 3rd quarters, there is a world where Steph puts up even crazier numbers than he did last season. With regards to his legacy, getting past any of the top teams in the West in playoffs will have substantial benefits, while an early exit from the playoffs most likely would be written off as circumstantial. Because of this, legacy stock could be a sound bet going into the season.

Conclusion

Considering what the Warriors were in 2019 after the KD injury, burying the CP3/Harden Rockets in Houston and sweeping the Dame-Time Blazers in 4, with where the perception is, if buying in on the Warriors’ success you should go in big or not go in at all. So, if the line is set at the 2nd round, I’m buying in on the Western Conference Finals for the bigger pay day on the dangerous gamble. It obviously comes with an enormous risk on Klay Thompson’s health considering if he get reinjured they probably would get bounced in the first round. However, we can say that about nearly every team in the NBA, if they lose their second-best player, they’ll have an early trip Cancun.

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